AP®︎ Statistics: Topic 2.3 Flashcards

Master key terms and definitions for Topic 2.3 of AP Statistics – Estimating Probabilities Using Simulation to help you prep for quizzes and the AP exam.

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Term

Random Process

Definition

A repeatable process whose results are determined by chance

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Random Process
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A repeatable process whose results are determined by chance

2.3.A2.3.A.1
Trial
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One repetition of a random process

2.3.A2.3.A.1
Outcome
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The result of one trial of a random process

2.3.A2.3.A.2
Event
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A specified collection of outcomes

2.3.A2.3.A.3
Simulation
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Using one chance process to imitate a real random process and estimate a probability from the relative frequency of an outcome or event

2.3.A2.3.A.4
Complete Simulation Design
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Identify the event, the chance device and its mapping to outcomes, what counts as one complete trial, what to record, how to repeat many trials, and how to convert results to a probability estimate

2.3.A2.3.A.4
Empirical Probability
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A relative frequency from observed data used to estimate the probability of a real process under comparable conditions

2.3.A2.3.A.6
Simulated Probability
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A relative frequency from outcomes generated by a simulation model; it estimates the probability implied by that model

2.3.A2.3.A.4
True Probability
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The actual fixed long-run probability for the random process or model

2.3.A2.3.A.5
Law of Large Numbers
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For independent trials, as the number of trials increases, the relative frequency of an outcome or event approaches its probability

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Independent Trials
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Trials in which the result of one trial does not affect the chance mechanism or probabilities for another trial

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Simulation Variability
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Different valid simulations of the same process usually give different estimates because the simulated outcomes differ by chance

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Estimated Probability (Relative Frequency)
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P̂(E) = number of trials in which E occurs / total number of valid trials; the observed relative frequency used to estimate probability

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Random Digits
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Equally likely digits 0-9 used to represent outcomes in a simulation; pairs 00-99 give 100 equally likely values

2.3.A2.3.A.4
Independence Within and Between Trials
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Complete trials should be independent of each other, but steps within one trial may be dependent if the real process is

2.3.A2.3.A.7
Model Accuracy
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A simulation is useful only if its outcomes, probabilities, and dependence structure match the real process; more trials cannot fix a bad model

2.3.A2.3.A.4